THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
CORRECTLY ASSESSED THE 17, JULY 1998 PAPUA NEW GUINEA EARTHQUAKE
THE NEED FOR PREPAREDNESS
George Pararas-Carayannis
As the death toll in Papua New Guinea's West Sepik
province rises, many people want to know why there was no warning issued
for the tsunami. Any criticism that the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC)
in Honolulu, may have been insufficient in providing proper warning for
the tsunami - affected region in Papua-New Guinea is completely without
any foundation.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Acted Correctly
and Efficiently
PTWC is not in the position to provide tsunami
warnings for locally generated tsunamis within close proximity to the earthquake
source. PTWC functioned properly and correctly in assessing that the earthquake
that generated the 17, July 1998, tsunami that struck Papua New Guinea did
not generate a Pacific-wide tsunami and therefore was not of threat to other
regions of the Pacific. The Center in Honolulu cannot issue local tsunami
warnings. Pacific nations must further develop their own local and regional
warning systems. But even if such a local warning system was in place in
Papua- New Guinea, the time interval between the quake and the tsunami was
so short that it would not have made any difference.
Communications within the Affected Region were
Insufficient
Communications and proper
infrastructure does not exist for this vulnerable
area of PNG where the destructive tsunami struck. Even the authorities in
PNG did not know about this disaster until the following morning when a
Catholic nun on a mission there, radioed church headquarters at Port Moresby.
It was only then that the world found out about this disaster and rescue
efforts begun.
Future Adverse Effects of Tsunami Disasters in
PNG can be Mitigated
Indeed what happened in PNG is
regrettable. The extensive loss of life could have been prevented with some
basic preparedness and proper public education, particularly of the children.
Although a local warning system could not respond quickly enough to warn
about a tsunami from a local earthquake in the immediate vicinity, the earthquake
motion itself was a warning that a tsunami was on its way. There was a time
interval of a couple of precious minutes between the earthquake and the
tsunami. Also, the first wave is not always the largest. With proper planning,
even without higher ground to run to, adults and children could have implemented
a plan of vertical evacuation to a strong platform(s) above ground which
could have been constructed in each village. Such structures, particularly
in an area known to be seismically active could have saved most of the lives.
The vulnerability of this region was indeed known,
given the geological setting of the region, the existence of active seismicity
and the interactions of plate tectonics. Perhaps the exact day of the event
could not be predicted, but it was only a question of time before it happened.
In fact, it will happen again in the future.
Disaster Planning and Preparedness Are Needed
in PNG
For years, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic
Commission (IOC), tried to get PNG to join the Pacific Tsunami Warning System
and to establish a regional system of its own. Twice the author visited
PNG, on behalf of the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning
in the Pacific (ICG/ITSU) and the IOC , the last time in 1989 as chief scientist
of a three member team sponsored by the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP).
Recommendations Made Previously
This last time we had a long discussion with PNG's
head of the Civil Defense Agency and the Director of the Port Moresby Observatory
(the late Ian Everingham) about the dangers that potential tsunamis presented
for the country. Specifically we indicated the area on the Bismark Sea as
being the boundary of very active tectonic plate interaction, where a disastrous
tsunami could be expected in the future. During these meetings, we pointed
out the need for PNG to join the Pacific Tsunami Warning System and to develop
a regional warning capability of its own at the Port Moresby Geophysical
Observatory, which indeed is an excellent facility and run by very professional
people. As a first step, we identified the need for the Port Moresby Observatory
to be manned continually 24-hours a day. Also, we pointed out the need to
develop a standard operating plan for PNG to deal with such local emergencies.
We emphasized the need of a program of public education, particularly for
the children.
Finally, based on our assessments, a five year
Master Plan was drafted for the region as well as proposals for UNDP's funding
of the project. Unfortunately, other UNDP projects took precedence and funding
for this particular project was unavailable.
RECENT INQUIRIES AND QUESTIONS
FREQUENTLY ASKED ABOUT THE PNG TSUNAMI OF 17 JULY 1998
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